Fact Check: Crime is Falling

Crime rates have been falling in the United States since the 1990s. Violent crime rates went back up in 2020, but fell again after 2021. Violent crime is NOT increasing. It is near a 50-year low. 

Every reputable source—FBI, law enforcement across the country, serious researchers—reports falling rates of violent crime, including homicide. The only reports of increasing crime rates come from politicians. But people listen to politicians more than they listen to researchers, and most U.S. adults think that crime is constantly increasing.  

According to the Pew Research Center:

“Using the FBI data, the violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2022, with large decreases in the rates of robbery (-74%), aggravated assault (-39%) and murder/nonnegligent manslaughter (-34%). …

“n 23 of 27 Gallup surveys conducted since 1993, at least 60% of U.S. adults have said there is more crime nationally than there was the year before, despite the downward trend in crime rates during most of that period.”

The Pew Research Center report tackles a number of interesting questions, including:

• Which kinds of crime are most and least common?
• How have crime rates in the U.S. changed over time?
• How do Americans perceive crime in their country?
• How does crime in the U.S. differ by demographic characteristics?
• How does crime in the U.S. differ geographically?
• What percentage of crimes are reported to police? What percentage are solved?
• Which crimes are most likely to be reported to police? Which are most likely to be solved?
• Are police solving more or fewer crimes than they used to?

 Violent crime is down. Murder rates are down. One exception to the general decline in crime rates: auto theft is up. 

[Washington Post] “The drop in murders in 2023 was the largest year-over-year decline reported by the FBI in 20 years. In 2022, there were 6.5 murders for every 100,000 people. In 2023, there were 5.7 murders for every 100,000 people.”

Locally, the number of homicides in Minneapolis and St. Paul both fell in 2023, though homicides and violent crime remained higher than pre-pandemic levels. 

So, how can politicians keep screeching about increasing crime rates? In part—these are just lies. When they cite statistics, they often misrepresent what the statistics say. For a good discussion of these misrepresentations, see “Common myths about the new FBI crime statistics, debunked” from Popular Info. 

“If it bleeds, it leads,” is a newsroom maxim. Crime reports always get more media coverage than boring statistics that show crime is declining. In this election year, politicians profit by stoking public fears about crime. Don’t be deceived.

Sources: 

[Minnesota Reformer, 10/8/2024] Crime is down, FBI says, but politicians still choose statistics to fit their narratives

[Pew Research Center, 4/24/2024] What the data says about crime in the United States

[Washington Post, 9/23/2024] With crime on the election agenda, FBI gives final 2023 crime stats

The FBI 2023 Crime in the Nation Report

[New York Times, 9/23/2024] Murder in U.S. Continues Steep Decline, F.B.I. Reports

[Star Tribune, 8/20/2024] Here’s how crime in Minneapolis and St. Paul compares with national trends in 2024

[Popular Info, 9/26/2024] Common myths about the new FBI crime statistics, debunked