Lies, Damn Lies, and Crime Statistics

Trump and his cronies lie about crime. They lie constantly and shamelessly. Crime has been dropping across the United States, including Washington, DC since 2022. 

Violent crime has been falling across the country since 2022, according to FBI statistics. Violent crime peaked in the 1990s, and fell steadily until 2020 during the COVID epidemic. Although crime increased in 2020-2022, it came nowhere near the 1990s levels. 

Since 2022, violent crime rates have been falling again. 

Trump-appointed FBI chief, Kash Patel on August 11, speaking from the White House, standing next to Trump: ” “We are now able to report that the murder rate is on track to be the lowest in US history.”

I don’t think he’s right about that “lowest in US history” claim, but it is true that the murder rate is back down to pre-pandemic levels in the nation as a whole.

Crime Statistics

Talking about crime is complicated. When someone starts throwing crime statistics around, here are a few important things to remember.

First—there is a difference between the number of crimes and the crime rate. The number of homicides in a city is one statistic. The number of violent crimes is another. But neither number is the same as a crime rate. 

The crime rate measures the number of homicides, or violent crimes, or property crimes per 100,000 residents.

Chicago clearly has more homicides than Memphis, Tennessee. But Memphis has a much higher homicide rate than Chicago, and an overall higher rate of violent crime than Chicago. 

Popular Information shows a homicide rate of 40.61 per 100,000 population in Memphis in 2024, compared to 17.47 per 100,000 population in Chicago in 2024. 

Security.org shows a violent crime rate of 2501.3 per 100,000 population in Memphis in 2024, compared to 539.8 per 100,000 in Chicago in 2024. 

Both organizations base their numbers on the latest FBI reports. Why do I cite these organizations instead of going to the FBI reports directly? 

First, because the FBI data tables are more difficult to access and analyze. I don’t have the time or expertise to do that data analysis well. 

Second, because I know that these organizations have proven accurate over the years. I have followed these issues closely for years. I read multiple sources and can spot inconsistencies and errors.

Fact Checking Trump’s Lies 

The first fact check has to be the lies about Washington, DC.

Yes, Washington has a high crime rate, as do many big cities. But Washington’s crime rate has been falling, not rising. 

In Washington, DC, according to FactCheck.org: “Statistics released by the Metropolitan Police Department on the same day as Trump’s remarks showed the number of homicides had decreased by 32% from 2023 to 2024 and by 12% so far from 2024 to 2025. In addition, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia reported in January that violent crime overall for 2024 was down 35% from the previous year and was ‘the lowest it has been in over 30 years.’”

The DC violent crime rate has been falling DESPITE the Trump administration’s efforts to sabotage DC crime fighting. The Trump administration has slashed funding for DC police and has left prosecutor and judge positions in DC vacant, further undercutting the DC criminal justice system. 

While Trump regularly denounces Washington, Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles as crime-ridden hell holes, none of them is in the top five for violent crime rates for 2024. (Remember: the rate is the number of violent crimes per 100,000 residents.) Only Washington even makes it into the top 10 on the list compiled by Security.org from FBI reports. 

None of these cities has “record high crime rates.” The record high crime rates were in the 1990s, and today’s rates are not nearly as high. 

Do we still need to lower crime rates? Of course. But defunding cities and sending in soldiers is not the way to do it. Instead, look at the cities that have brought down crime rates, and replicate the programs that work in those cities. 

The Real and Present Danger

Sending U.S. military troops into U.S. cities is dangerous. The Constitution recognized that danger. So did Congress, which passed the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, saying that the U.S. military cannot be used for civilian law enforcement. Constitutional law professor Steven Vladek has written far more in-depth analysis than I can of the Posse Comitatus Act prohibition and the very limited exceptions to it, of the specific use of the National Guard in California, and of the special case of Washington D.C. I subscribe to his Substack blog, and highly recommend it. 

More Sources

Why you might not know that 2024 was America’s safest year since the 1960s (Popular Information, 8/7/25)

Calling crime data “fake news,” Trump seizes DC police (Popular Information, 8/12/25) 
Crime Trends in U.S. Cities Mid-Year 2025 Update (Council on Criminal Justice, July 2025) 

Most Dangerous Cities: 2024 Rankings for the 30 Largest U.S. Cities (Security.org, 8/13/25)

Leading cities with the largest number of violent crimes per 100,000 residents in the United States in 2023 (Statista, 12/12/24)

FBI Releases 2024 Reported Crimes in the Nation Statistics (FBI, 8/5/25)

MAGA’s Feelings Don’t Care About Your Facts (Paul Krugman, 8/14/25) 

Talking With Jeff Asher: My go-to guy for crime data (Paul Krugman, 8/16/25) 

Assessing DC’s Violent Crime Trends (Jeff Asher, 8/11/25)

Murder Officially Plunged in 2024 (Jeff Asher, 8/5/25)

Assessing Crime at Midyear (Jeff Asher, 7/21/25)

Washington DC and White House agree to scale back Trump ‘takeover’ of city police (The Guardian, 8/15/25) 

How Baltimore’s violent crime rate hit an all-time low: ‘This is not magic. It’s hard work’ (The Guardian, 8/16/25) 

Trump says crime in D.C. is out of control. Here’s what the data shows. (Washington Post, 8/10/25) 

D.C. Advocate in Senate Blames Trump for Crime in Capital (New York Times, 8/11/25) 

Trump Misstates Washington Crime Data to Justify Takeover (New York Times, 8/12/25) 

As Trump Seizes D.C.’s Police, Critics Say He’s Undercut Its Ability to Fight Crime (New York Times, 8/14/25)